The regular business survey conducted by the Pécs–Baranya Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PBKIK) provides an accurate picture year after year of how businesses in Baranya County view the coming period: whether they expect an increase in orders, whether they plan to upgrade machinery or expand their facilities, and how confident they are overall in their own business prospects. The Chamber’s survey is conducted twice a year; the analysis was compiled based on responses from 360 businesses in Baranya County during the most recent, detailed data collection.
The PBKIK calculates an aggregate indicator from the responses—the so-called business climate index—which distills expected changes in four areas into a single figure: total orders, machinery investments, construction investments, and the expected business outlook. This approach is particularly revealing because it shows not only “what the mood is like,” but also the extent to which businesses dare to move forward in their concrete decisions—investment, development, and capacity.
Compared to the rest of the country, there still appears to be a lag
When compared at the national and regional levels, the economic indicator consistently shows that Baranya’s performance falls below the national average. At the same time, the PBKIK’s analysis highlights an important trend: based on economic and social indicators, the county has moved away from a position near “last place” in recent years, meaning that progress has been made compared to the downward trends.
According to the survey, in the second half of 2023, compared to the national and South Transdanubian averages (19 and 18 points, respectively, in the report), expectations in Baranya were significantly more subdued: businesses in the county forecast a business climate of just 2 points.
What is dragging down expectations? Weakness in the investment components
The sub-indices reveal a marked discrepancy between businesses’ assessment of their own situation and their investment plans. For example, the assessment of the business situation has deteriorated dramatically compared to the beginning of the year: the indicator fell from 16.1 points to 1.6 points between the spring and fall surveys.
The PBKIK also provides a historical overview of capital expenditures on machinery: the spring 2020 survey recorded a record low (-70.7 points), and following a subsequent rebound, expectations for machinery investment remained in negative territory in 2023, with values ranging from -7 to -18 points, according to the report. This picture typically means that some companies are postponing the development of production assets and are more cautious about taking on new capacity.
The most concerning trend is evident in the construction sector. According to the PBKIK, the persistently negative figure indicates that the majority of businesses are not planning to build new warehouses, offices, or facilities. After a reading of -26.4 points in the first half of 2023, the index deteriorated to -52.6 points by the end of the year; the analysis also notes that the decline in construction projects is a nationwide trend, and the coming year does not promise a systemic positive turnaround.
The reasons behind the "mood": shock effects and caution
The Chamber’s analysis examines the situation in Baranya over a longer time series: following the low point in 2012, an upward trend was evident through 2020, which was interrupted by the COVID crisis; In 2021, the economy approached pre-crisis levels, but the energy crisis, the war, and geopolitical tensions triggered another downturn in the second half of 2022. The outlook was even more positive at the start of 2023, but in the second half of the year—partly due to inflationary pressures—negative sentiment intensified again, and businesses projected deteriorating performance.
What does all this tell us about Baranya’s economic structure?
One lesson from the economic reports is that Baranya County exhibits both caution and adaptability. While expectations are modest compared to the national average, the county’s economy is not reliant on a single sector: its structure is supported by multiple sectors (manufacturing, services, tourism, healthcare-related activities, and a university-research base) make up its structure, which generally increases resilience during crises. The PBKIK analysis places particular emphasis on the fact that the county has already moved away from its previous position of lagging behind in recent years.
